{"id":5162,"date":"2025-10-27T09:34:17","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T09:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=5162"},"modified":"2025-11-24T14:22:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:22:02","slug":"bilanco-sezonu-ne-okumali-ne-beklemeli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/bilanco-sezonu-ne-okumali-ne-beklemeli\/","title":{"rendered":"Bilan\u00e7o Sezonu: Ne Okumal\u0131, Ne Beklemeli?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Bilan\u00e7o Sezonu: Ne Okumal\u0131, Ne Beklemeli?\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/792Cf9GaNpq9piXN0i2IKi?utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>T\u00fcrk \u015firketleri 3\u00c725 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201csat\u0131r aralar\u0131\u201d rehberi ve sekt\u00f6r beklentileri burada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da 3\u00c725 bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi <strong>20 Ekim<\/strong>\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye Sigorta ile ba\u015flad\u0131; <strong>konsolide olmayanlar i\u00e7in son tarih 30 Ekim<\/strong>, <strong>konsolide \u015firketler i\u00e7in 10 Kas\u0131m<\/strong>, <strong>konsolide bankalar i\u00e7in 19 Kas\u0131m<\/strong> olarak duyuruldu. Pek \u00e7ok kurum, bankalarda <strong>y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131na<\/strong>, finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tarafta ise dolar baz\u0131nda <strong>s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 daralma<\/strong> beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&nbsp;\u201cBir bilan\u00e7oda \u00f6nce nereye bak\u0131l\u0131r?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gelir tablosu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Sat\u0131\u015flar \/ Ciro<\/strong>: Reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme mi kur etkisi mi? Segment k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Br\u00fct k\u00e2r ve br\u00fct marj<\/strong>: Hammadde\/enerji\/kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 marj\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131 (FAV\u00d6K) &amp; marj<\/strong>: Operasyonel verimlilik ile tek-seferlik etkileri ay\u0131r\u0131n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Net k\u00e2r<\/strong>: Finansman gideri, kur fark\u0131, t\u00fcrevler, ertelenmi\u015f vergi gibi kalemleri ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131n.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bilan\u00e7o<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Net bor\u00e7<\/strong> (finansal bor\u00e7 \u2013 nakit): Kur \u015foku duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, vade yap\u0131s\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stoklar ve ticari alacaklar<\/strong>: \u0130\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ve talep sinyali. DSO\/DIO\/DPO g\u00fcnlerine bak\u0131n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u00d6zkaynaklar<\/strong>: Enflasyon muhasebesi ve yeniden de\u011ferleme etkileri.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nakit ak\u0131m\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Faaliyetlerden nakit<\/strong> \u2194 <strong>FAV\u00d6K<\/strong>: K\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k nakde d\u00f6n\u00fcyor mu?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 (CAPEX)<\/strong>: B\u00fcy\u00fcme mi bak\u0131m m\u0131?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Serbest nakit ak\u0131m\u0131<\/strong> ve temett\u00fc\/geri al\u0131m kapasitesi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dipnotlar &amp; y\u00f6netim sunumu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Enflasyon muhasebesi, t\u00fcrev ve hedging politikas\u0131, reg\u00fclasyon etkileri.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>K\u0131lavuzluk<\/strong> (guidance) ve 4\u00c7\/2026 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u0130lk \u0130ki \u00c7eyrekten Gelen Sinyal: 1Y25 foto\u011fraf\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Bankalar:<\/strong> \u0130lk yar\u0131da en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 bankan\u0131n toplam net k\u00e2r\u0131 <strong>~305 milyar TL<\/strong> ile <strong>%32 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f<\/strong> g\u00f6sterdi; \u00e7ekirdek marjlarda toparlanma ve T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli menkul gelirlerinin etkisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sanayi\/finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131:<\/strong> Baz\u0131 alt sekt\u00f6rler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (\u00e7imento, savunma, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131), baz\u0131lar\u0131 dalgal\u0131 (beyaz e\u015fya\/elektronik, havac\u0131l\u0131kta mevsimsellik ve tek-seferlikler). (\u015eirket bazl\u0131 \u00f6rnekler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\u00c725\u2019e girerken \u201cgenel beklentiler\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Takvim:<\/strong> \u0130lk a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ba\u015flad\u0131; TAV Havalimanlar\u0131, Akbank, Ar\u00e7elik ve di\u011ferleri <strong>23\u201330 Ekim<\/strong> band\u0131nda.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bankalar:<\/strong> Bir\u00e7ok kurum <strong>y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (+%60 civar\u0131) k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong>, \u00e7eyreksel s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; net faiz marj\u0131nda iyile\u015fme, \u00fccret\/komisyon katk\u0131s\u0131, risk maliyetinde y\u00f6netilebilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sekt\u00f6r k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u2013 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kanlar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Bankac\u0131l\u0131k (\u00f6zel paragraf):<\/strong><br>Kurum notlar\u0131 3\u00c725\u2019te <strong>y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<\/strong> ama <strong>\u00e7eyreksel \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131<\/strong> k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. T\u00dcFE tahvilleri, \u00e7ekirdek marj toparlanmas\u0131 ve swap hari\u00e7 net faiz gelirlerinde art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Baz\u0131 raporlar <strong>Yap\u0131 Kredi\u2019de<\/strong> g\u00f6rece daha y\u00fcksek \u00e7\/\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f, <strong>\u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019nda<\/strong> ise 2\u00c7\u2019deki tek seferlik gelirlerin baz etkisiyle \u00e7\/\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor. Sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6zkaynak k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek \u00e7ift hanelerde kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yayg\u0131n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sigorta:<\/strong> \u0130skonto oran\u0131 (indirgeme) varsay\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m gelirleriyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tablo. <strong>T\u00fcrkiye Sigorta<\/strong> 3\u00c725\u2019te <strong>5,0 milyar TL<\/strong> net k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 (y\/y <strong>+%63<\/strong>, \u00e7\/\u00e7 <strong>+%4<\/strong>); \u00e7ekirdek \u00f6zkaynak k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Savunma:<\/strong> <strong>ASELSAN<\/strong> i\u00e7in 3\u00c725\u2019te y\u00fcksek ciro ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc FAV\u00d6K marj\u0131 bekleyen raporlar var; tek-seferlik nakit d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalemler net k\u00e2rda dalgalanma yaratabilir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Enerji\/altyap\u0131:<\/strong> Elektrik da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m &amp; perakende taraf\u0131nda reg\u00fclasyon \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetindeki normalle\u015fme hik\u00e2yesi; <strong>Enerjisa<\/strong> i\u00e7in olumlu tona sahip g\u00fcncel analizler mevcut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u00c7imento:<\/strong> 2024\u2019te endeksten pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fan sekt\u00f6r 2025\u2019e de talep\/ihale ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla g\u00f6rece diren\u00e7li girdi; marjlar b\u00f6lgesel enerji ve klinker dinamiklerine duyarl\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Beyaz e\u015fya\/elektronik:<\/strong> 1Y25\u2019te dalgal\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar; 3\u00c725 i\u00e7in se\u00e7ili kurumlar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanma veya temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm payla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Havac\u0131l\u0131k:<\/strong> Trafik verileri 2025\u2019te art\u0131da; ancak mevsimsellik\/jeopolitik ve \u015firket bazl\u0131 tek-seferlikler k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oynat\u0131yor. <strong>TAVHL<\/strong> 2\u00c7\u2019de zarar a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 3\u00c7 takvimi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&nbsp;\u201cEn son iyi bilan\u00e7o kimden geldi?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bilan\u00e7o sezonunu <strong>T\u00fcrkiye Sigorta<\/strong> a\u00e7t\u0131 ve beklentilere paralel\/\u00fcst\u00fc <strong>g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<\/strong> bir k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 (3\u00c725 net k\u00e2r 5,0 milyar TL; 9A25 k\u00e2r y\/y <strong>+%49<\/strong>). \u0130skonto oran\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m gelirleri, teknik k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&nbsp;\u201cSat\u0131r aralar\u0131\u201d 4 maddede<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Marjlar &amp; nakit d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc<\/strong>: FAV\u00d6K ve faaliyet nakdi uyumu \u015fart.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Kur ve finansman<\/strong>: Net bor\u00e7\/FD\/FAV\u00d6K, faiz duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, vade yap\u0131s\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tek-seferlikler<\/strong>: Net k\u00e2r\u0131n kalitesi (vergi\/kur\/hedge\/yeniden de\u011ferleme).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>K\u0131lavuzluk<\/strong>: 4\u00c7 ve 2026\u2019a ili\u015fkin net hedefler.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrk \u015firketleri 3\u00c725 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201csat\u0131r aralar\u0131\u201d rehberi ve sekt\u00f6r beklentileri burada. Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da 3\u00c725 bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi 20 Ekim\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye Sigorta ile ba\u015flad\u0131; konsolide olmayanlar i\u00e7in son tarih 30 Ekim, konsolide \u015firketler i\u00e7in 10 Kas\u0131m, konsolide bankalar i\u00e7in 19 Kas\u0131m olarak duyuruldu. Pek \u00e7ok kurum, bankalarda y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131na, finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5166,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5162"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5162\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5208,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5162\/revisions\/5208"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}