{"id":5159,"date":"2025-10-23T06:30:37","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T06:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=5159"},"modified":"2025-11-24T14:22:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:22:31","slug":"enflasyon-dunyanin-atesi-sonuyor-mu-yoksa-kuller-altinda-kor-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/enflasyon-dunyanin-atesi-sonuyor-mu-yoksa-kuller-altinda-kor-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon: D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ate\u015fi S\u00f6n\u00fcyor mu, Yoksa K\u00fcller Alt\u0131nda Kor mu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Enflasyon: D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ate\u015fi S\u00f6n\u00fcyor mu, Yoksa K\u00fcller Alt\u0131nda Kor mu?\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/0RdZwEA8zBJvH64O6ht2Ht?utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>2023\u201324\u2019te tedarik \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi gerilerken, d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de tablo farkl\u0131 \u2014 \u00e7ift haneli rakamlar devam ediyor ve dez\u00adinflasyon yolu halen \u00e7etin. Uzmanlar global ve yerel dinamiklerin yeni e\u015fiklere ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce \u201cengebeli bir ini\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<br><br>2023\u201324 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon bir miktar kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131: tedarik zinciri bask\u0131lar\u0131 azald\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 2022 zirvesinden \u00e7ekildi. Ancak \u201cher yer ayn\u0131 de\u011fil\u201d: Amerika\u2019da enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde kalma riski var, Avrupa\u2019da hedefe yakla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda, Asya\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye korunuyor; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise y\u00fcksek \u00e7ift haneli seyir s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<br>Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) ve Organisation for Economic Co\u2011operation and Development (OECD) verilerine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel enflasyon 2026\u2019ya do\u011fru \u201cdo\u011frusal de\u011fil, engebeli bir ser\u00fcven\u201d izleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>K\u00fcresel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>IMF\u2019nin \u201cWorld Economic Outlook\u201d raporuna g\u00f6re, 2025\u2019te d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda enflasyon y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eviriyor; ancak ABD\u2019de hala hedeflerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalma riski var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>OECD\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl 2025 itibar\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizde G20 \u00fclkelerinde man\u015fet enflasyon 2025\u2019te %3,4, 2026\u2019da %2,9 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda G20 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleniyor. Yani hedefe ini\u015f var ama <strong>zafer ilan edilmedi<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u00f6lgesel olarak son veriler: ABD\u2019de %2,9 (A\u011fustos), Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde %2,2 (Eyl\u00fcl), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta %3,8 (A\u011fustos). Yiyecek fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda 2022 zirvesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu tablo bize \u015funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor: s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve tedarik normalle\u015fmesi enflasyonu bast\u0131r\u0131yor \u2014 ama hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve \u00e7ekirdek fiyatlar \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kal\u0131yor, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha yava\u015f, ini\u015f dik dalgal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye Tablosu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de man\u015fet t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k %33,29, ayl\u0131k %3,23 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00c7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerde hafif iyile\u015fme var, ancak y\u00fcksek \u00e7ift hane trendi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ara hedefleri: 2025 i\u00e7in %24, 2026 i\u00e7in %16, 2027 i\u00e7in %9; orta vadede ise %5 hedefi i\u015faretlenmi\u015f durumda. Ancak piyasa ve banka tahminleri bu y\u0131lsonu i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 <strong>%27-32<\/strong> band\u0131nda dola\u015f\u0131yor ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler var.<br>Talep\u2010so\u011fuma e\u011filimi (kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, reel faizler) mevcut ancak kur ve \u00fccret-maliyet kanallar\u0131 dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini yava\u015flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dez\u00adinflasyonist Etkenler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Son 12 ayda T\u00dcFE\u2019ye negatif katk\u0131 yapan ba\u015fl\u0131ca kalemler \u015funlar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Kalem<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>A\u00e7\u0131klama<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>G\u0131da<\/td><td>Baz etkileri + arz ko\u015fullar\u0131 iyile\u015fmesiyle katk\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mallar (ithal\/dayan\u0131kl\u0131)<\/td><td>Kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi yava\u015flad\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek B-C gev\u015fedi<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Enerji (se\u00e7ili d\u00f6nemler)<\/td><td>Uluslararas\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilme oldu<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Hizmet ve G\u0131da \u015foklar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam etti: \u00f6zellikle kiralar, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, et-s\u00fct ve sebze\u2010meyve lojisti\u011fi gibi kalemler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Neden D\u00fc\u015fmeli?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi sadece \u201ciyi haber\u201d de\u011fil; yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131, \u00fccretler ve sermaye maliyeti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik. Fiyat istikrar\u0131 olmadan orta\/uzun vadeli planlar yap\u0131lamaz; reel \u00fccretler toparlanamaz; yat\u0131r\u0131m ufku k\u0131sal\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>H\u0131zland\u0131rma Re\u00e7etesi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Talep kontrol\u00fc (reel faiz, kur stabilizasyonu), fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 (endeksleme k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131), maliyet\/tedarik zinciri reformlar\u0131, ileti\u015fim ve beklenti y\u00f6netimi\u2026 Bu d\u00f6rt kanal birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>G\u0131da Temas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte Food and Agriculture Organization G\u0131da Fiyat Endeksi Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019te 128,8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; 2022 zirvesinin ~%19,6 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019te g\u0131da-alkol-t\u00fct\u00fcn grubu y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0 artarken enerji \u2013%0,4 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 T\u00dcFE oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ana s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcs\u00fc; \u00f6zellikle et-s\u00fct ve sebze-meyve kalemleri\u2026 Bu anlamda g\u0131da \u201cdezenflasyonu yava\u015flatan kald\u0131ra\u00e7\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>G\u0131da i\u00e7in pratik re\u00e7ete: so\u011fuk zincir\/hal modernizasyonu, mevsimsel ithalat politikas\u0131, verim yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, fire azalt\u0131m\u0131, erken uyar\u0131 sistemleri\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Yol Haritas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara: hizmet enflasyonunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc mikro-m\u00fcdahaleler, TL\u2019ye pozitif reel getiri, g\u0131da reformu\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara: k\u00fcresel dezenflasyon trendi genel senaryo; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00e7ift hane riski devam ediyor, \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerle teyit gelmedik\u00e7e TL varl\u0131klar temkinli; g\u0131da-emtia riski g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fer \u2014 ama kendili\u011finden de\u011fil. Tasarlan\u0131r, uygulan\u0131r ve korunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2023\u201324\u2019te tedarik \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi gerilerken, d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de tablo farkl\u0131 \u2014 \u00e7ift haneli rakamlar devam ediyor ve dez\u00adinflasyon yolu halen \u00e7etin. Uzmanlar global ve yerel dinamiklerin yeni e\u015fiklere ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce \u201cengebeli bir ini\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2023\u201324 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon bir miktar kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131: tedarik zinciri bask\u0131lar\u0131 azald\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5153,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5159"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5210,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5159\/revisions\/5210"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5153"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}