{"id":414,"date":"2015-12-15T16:06:28","date_gmt":"2015-12-15T16:06:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=414"},"modified":"2019-12-14T11:57:22","modified_gmt":"2019-12-14T11:57:22","slug":"fed-faiz-karari-oncesi-dolarda-satis-dalgasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/fed-faiz-karari-oncesi-dolarda-satis-dalgasi\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Faiz Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesi Dolarda Sat\u0131\u015f Dalgas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

FED faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalardaki fiyatlamalara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda gerek dolar endeksinde gerekse dolar\u0131n geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki konumunda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar endeksi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 98 seviyesindeyken bug\u00fcn itibariyle 97.30 civar\u0131nda fiyatlan\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 performanslar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ba\u015fta geli\u015fen Avrupa blo\u011fu \u00fclke para birimleri olmak \u00fczere genel itibariyle geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yar\u0131n ki Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde dolarda ya\u015fanan sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, son d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileriyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u00fckseli\u015flerin d\u00fczeltmesi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda FED faiz karar\u0131na pozisyonda girmek istemeyen b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin pozisyon kapamalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkili oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

FED\u2019den Ne Bekleniyor? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

FED\u2019in yar\u0131n yap\u0131lacak faiz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda faizleri artt\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. %74 oran\u0131nda beklenti 0.25-0.50 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeyken, %26 oran\u0131nda beklenti 0-0.25 baz puan aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. FED son 9 y\u0131ld\u0131r herhangi bir faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmedi. Yar\u0131n ise bu s\u00fcrecin sonuna gelinip gelinmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rebilece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

FED \u00f6ncesi hareketlilik incelendi\u011finde dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durumda \u00fczerinde durulmas\u0131 gereken kriterleri \u015f\u00f6yle belirleyebiliriz;<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemki veriler incelendi\u011finde ECB\u2019nin parasal geni\u015fleme yaparken FED\u2019in faiz artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin %60\u2019\u0131nda dolarda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n
  2. FED\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin projeksiyonlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi yanl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama gelirse ve global piyasa trendlerine ili\u015fkin yava\u015flama nedeniyle faizleri \u00e7ok kontroll\u00fc ve yava\u015f artt\u0131rabileceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klayabilecek olmalar\u0131.<\/li>\n
  3. Genellikle faiz artt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda FED\u2019in daha yumu\u015fak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparak dalgalanmalar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak isteyece\u011fi beklentileri.<\/li>\n
  4. Piyasalardaki ortalamaya d\u00f6nme iste\u011fi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 dolar\u0131n en \u00e7ok de\u011ferlendi\u011fi y\u0131l olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131n yeniden ortalama de\u011ferlere d\u00f6nmek istemesi dolar \u00fczerindeki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rabilir.<\/li>\n
  5. Y\u0131l sonu pozisyonlar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kar alma zaman\u0131 gelmesi de dolarda olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyon kapatmalar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Yukar\u0131daki maddeler incelendi\u011finde FED sonras\u0131nda dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetme ihtimalinin gelecek rakamlar ne olursa olsun daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    FED Sonras\u0131 Dolar\u0131n G\u00fc\u00e7lenme \u0130htimali Nedir? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    FED\u2019in yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ihtimalinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek. E\u011fer FED bu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz artt\u0131r\u0131p, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte de ikinci ve hatta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapabileceklerini belirtirse, dolar ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz seneden daha \u00e7ok de\u011fer kazanabilir. \u00d6zellikle 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelebilecek olumlu haberler ve ABD ekonomik verilerinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 da dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l etkili olabilecektir.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    FED faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalardaki fiyatlamalara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda gerek dolar endeksinde gerekse dolar\u0131n geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki konumunda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar endeksi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 98 seviyesindeyken bug\u00fcn itibariyle 97.30 civar\u0131nda fiyatlan\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 performanslar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ba\u015fta geli\u015fen Avrupa blo\u011fu \u00fclke para…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":1014,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=414"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":415,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions\/415"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1014"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}