{"id":3888,"date":"2021-10-25T15:22:17","date_gmt":"2021-10-25T15:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=3888"},"modified":"2022-09-12T14:40:42","modified_gmt":"2022-09-12T14:40:42","slug":"dolar-yukselirse-altin-duser-mi-dolar-duserse-altin-yukselir-mi-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/dolar-yukselirse-altin-duser-mi-dolar-duserse-altin-yukselir-mi-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2021’de Dolar Y\u00fckselirse Alt\u0131n D\u00fc\u015fer mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u0130nternetten D\u00f6viz Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in BA\u015eVUR<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131zda, dolar ve alt\u0131n aras\u0131nda ki ili\u015fkiyi incelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Normalde, eskiden beri ons alt\u0131n ve dolar aras\u0131nda ters korelasyon oldu\u011fu tahmin edilir. Finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar ile ilgili k\u0131sa-orta ve uzun vadeli stratejiler olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bu kadar dar a\u00e7\u0131dan bakarak tahmin yapmak eksik yada yanl\u0131\u015f sonu\u00e7lara neden olabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, k\u00fcresel d\u00fcnyada pay ve payda da yer alan iki etmene etki eden i\u00e7sel dinamiklerin farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bilinmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda, alt\u0131n ve dolar aras\u0131nda ki ili\u015fkiyi incelerken, bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6re ve modele bakarak daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015fma ihtimali s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. \u00d6zellikle, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 Mart ay\u0131 itibariyle ba\u015flayan COVID-19 pandemisi ard\u0131ndan finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar aras\u0131nda genel anlamda korelasyonun bozuldu\u011funu g\u00f6rmekteyiz. COVID-19 d\u00f6nemi ile birlikte bilindi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen bir\u00e7ok denklem rafa kalkarken, finansal piyasalarda yeni tarz fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor. Global piyasalarda, ons alt\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ile \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan bir emtiad\u0131r. Yak\u0131n tarih olmas\u0131 sebebiyle bir \u00f6rnek vermek gerekirse, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan pandemi s\u00fcrecinde risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 sebebiyle k\u0131ymetli metalin 2.075 dolar seviyelerine kadar y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. K\u0131ymetli metale teknik olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda son on y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 1.921 dolar\u0131 test etmi\u015f olup, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en y\u00fcksek seviyeye 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ula\u015farak 2.075 dolar\u0131 test etmi\u015fti. Fakat, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan hareketi sadece risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda ya\u015fanan azal\u0131\u015flara ba\u011flamak do\u011fru olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resmin tamam\u0131na bakmak gerekti\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ya\u015fanan pandemi s\u00fcrecinde, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak ad\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi ve varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 tekrardan g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 nedeniyle global piyasalarda dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Buna ek olarak, ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ya\u015fanan pandeminin olumsuz etkisini minimize etmek ad\u0131na geni\u015flemeci mali politikalar\u0131 uygulamaya almas\u0131 rezerv para birimi olan dolar \u00fczerinde hissedilen bask\u0131y\u0131 daha da art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. A\u015f\u0131lama s\u00fcrecinin h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 ve artan likidite bollu\u011fu ard\u0131nda, ekonomilerin tekrar a\u00e7\u0131lmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar i\u00e7erisinde riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelimin tekrar g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131rken, k\u0131ymetli metal \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131y\u0131 bir miktar art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomilerin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ekonomik aktivitede ya\u015fanan toparlanma e\u011filimi ile birlikte y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131, hen\u00fcz tam detaylar\u0131 payla\u015fmasa da k\u0131sa vadede art\u0131k varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar sona erdirmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarken, son d\u00f6nemde, enflasyona y\u00f6nelik fakt\u00f6rlerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi i\u015faret etmesiyle finansal enstr\u00fcman fiyatlamalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde tekrardan karma\u015f\u0131k bir seyrin ya\u015fanmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer, bir \u00f6nemli hususta geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde ekonomik aktiviteye y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda ivme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanabilece\u011fine dair artan endi\u015feler, a\u015f\u0131lama s\u00fcrecinin geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131nda ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda ilerlememesi ve enflasyon taraf\u0131nda devam eden y\u00fcksek seyir, stagflasyon olgusunu tekrardan g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131rken, bu tarz geli\u015fmelerin k\u0131sa vadede hem alt\u0131n hem de dolarda fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda etkili olmaya devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uyar\u0131 Notu Son Sayfada Yer Alan \u00c7ekince Yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u0130le Birlikte Okunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik-1: Ons Alt\u0131n & Dolar Endeksi Fiyat hareketleri (120 g\u00fcnl\u00fck korelasyon)<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Grafik-2: Ons Alt\u0131n & ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi (120 g\u00fcnl\u00fck korlasyonu)<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Grafik-3: Ons Alt\u0131n & ABD 2-5-10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil reel getirisi (%)<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Grafik-4: Ons Alt\u0131n& ABD Reel Faiz (%)<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Grafik-5: FED Bilan\u00e7o (trilyon dolar)<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Grafik-6: Emtia grubunun y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana getirisi (%)<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

De\u011ferlendirme;<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ki enstr\u00fcman\u0131n fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 i\u00e7 dinamiklere sahip oldu\u011funu ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fte var olan korelasyonun son d\u00f6nemde bozulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Klasik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar ile finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar aras\u0131nda bir ba\u011f kurman\u0131n tam anlam\u0131yla do\u011fru bir y\u00f6ntem olup\/olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir. Ya\u015fan\u0131lan geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar aras\u0131nda davran\u0131\u015flar yakla\u015f\u0131mlarda d\u00f6nemsel olarak farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Fakat, finansal piyasalarda var olan riskler ile birlikte, ya\u015fanan pandemi d\u00f6neminden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f a\u015famas\u0131na do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda hala oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fi izleniyor. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, bir \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 veri ve data setine ula\u015fman\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re geli\u015fen teknoloji yard\u0131m\u0131 ile daha kolay oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131z. Hem alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda hem de dolar taraf\u0131nda temel ve teknik analizin birlikte kullan\u0131larak, t\u00fcretilen modeller \u00fczerine stratejilerin yeniden in\u015fa edilmesi ve s\u0131k s\u0131k g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesi gerekti\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u00fcresel tarafta finansal enstr\u00fcman fiyatlamalar\u0131nda, veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ilave olarak haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131\/s\u00f6ylemlerinde etkili oldu\u011funu ve yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uyar\u0131 Notu Son Sayfada Yer Alan \u00c7ekince Yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u0130le Birlikte Okunmal\u0131d\u0131r<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kaynak: InvestAZ Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, Matriks ve Bloomberg<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7ekince: Burada yer alan bilgiler INVESTAZ Yat\u0131r\u0131m Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e. taraf\u0131ndan genel bilgilendirme amac\u0131 ile haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda de\u011fildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hizmeti, SPK taraf\u0131ndan yetkilendirilmi\u015f yetkili kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan ki\u015filerin risk ve getiri tercihleri dikkate al\u0131narak s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzalanmak suretiyle ki\u015fiye \u00f6zel olarak sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler ise genel nitelikte olup tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n ki\u015fisel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Herhangi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m-sat\u0131m \u00f6nerisi ya da getiri vaadi olarak yorumlanmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcm veriler, INVESTAZ Yat\u0131r\u0131m Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenilir oldu\u011funa inan\u0131lan kaynaklardan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada yer alan fiyatlar, veriler ve bilgilerin tam ve do\u011fru oldu\u011fu garanti edilemez; i\u00e7erik, haber verilmeksizin de\u011fi\u015ftirilebilir. Bu kaynaklar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 nedeni ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek hatalardan veya zararlardan kurum \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 ile INVESTAZ Yat\u0131r\u0131m Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e. sorumlu de\u011fildir. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00c7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re karda olan fx hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n oransal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %41,67; zararda olan fx hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n oransal da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %58,33\u2019d\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130nternetten D\u00f6viz Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in BA\u015eVUR Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131zda, dolar ve alt\u0131n aras\u0131nda ki ili\u015fkiyi incelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Normalde, eskiden beri ons alt\u0131n ve dolar aras\u0131nda ters korelasyon oldu\u011fu tahmin edilir. Finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar ile ilgili k\u0131sa-orta ve uzun vadeli stratejiler olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bu kadar dar a\u00e7\u0131dan bakarak tahmin yapmak eksik yada yanl\u0131\u015f sonu\u00e7lara neden olabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, k\u00fcresel d\u00fcnyada…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3895,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3888"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3888\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4009,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3888\/revisions\/4009"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}