{"id":3772,"date":"2021-05-25T09:03:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T09:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=3772"},"modified":"2022-12-23T09:21:01","modified_gmt":"2022-12-23T09:21:01","slug":"dolar-ne-olur-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/dolar-ne-olur-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar Ne Olur?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ya\u015fanan pandemi d\u00f6nemi ile birlikte ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin geni\u015flemeci maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya almas\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi kapsam\u0131nda varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda dolar likiditesinde art\u0131\u015flara neden olurken, dolar\u0131n de\u011feri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor. Fed ya\u015fanan salg\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fclke ekonomisi \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz tahribat\u0131n etkisini en aza indirmek i\u00e7in faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere \u00e7ekmesi ve uzun bir m\u00fcddet bu b\u00f6lgede korumaya devam edece\u011fini ifade etmesi dolar \u00fczerinde di\u011fer bir negatif kataliz\u00f6r olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Tavsiyeleri \u0130nceleyin<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 Dolar Y\u00fckselirse Alt\u0131n D\u00fc\u015fer mi?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD ekonomisinde yap\u0131lan te\u015fviklerin, makro ekonomik veriler \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede olumlu yans\u0131malar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclse de orta ve uzun vadede tehlikenin ge\u00e7ti\u011fini yada toparlanman\u0131n istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ba\u011flamda, FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n daha \u00e7ok veriye ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var\/daha \u00e7ok veri g\u00f6rmek istiyoruz s\u00f6yleminin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolar\u0131n G-10 ve GO\u00dc para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 performans\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda,<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

G-10 para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda;<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GO\u00dc para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda;<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dolar CFTC pozisyonlar\u0131;<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ABD-Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil fark\u0131;<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ABD on y\u0131ll\u0131k ve dolar endeksi spread analizi;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck resimde, temel tarafta devam eden geli\u015fmelerin y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda g\u00f6rece \u201cdolar\u201d fiyatlamalar\u0131nda etkili olmaya devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yo\u011fun g\u00fcndem nedeniyle k\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u201cdolar\u201d taraf\u0131nda fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tahmin ve bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc sunman\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.  Son d\u00f6nemde enflasyon& tahvil getirisi& dolar \u00fc\u00e7geni i\u00e7erisinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan takip edilemeye devam edilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6zellikle, yap\u0131lan te\u015fviklerin ve uluslararas\u0131 emtia fiyatlamalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131k enflasyon taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri i\u00e7erisinde bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaya devam etti\u011fi izleniyor. Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) politika tutumu \u00f6nemli olmaya devam edecek. Banka y\u00f6netim konseyi \u00fcyeleri, enflasyon taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filiminin \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d oldu\u011funu ifade etmeye devam ediyorlar. Baz senaryoda, enflasyon taraf\u0131nda bankan\u0131n beklentilerine paralel bir geli\u015fmenin g\u00fcndeme gelmesi durumunda piyasalar taraf\u0131nda olumlu olarak alg\u0131lanabilir. Olumsuz senaryoda, enflasyon taraf\u0131nda banka ile piyasa aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelmesi durumunda finansal enstr\u00fcman fiyatlamalar\u0131nda ba\u015fta dolar para birimi olmak \u00fczere oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Di\u011fer \u00f6nemli bir husus ise bankan\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik nas\u0131l bir yol izlenece\u011fi. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ben Bernanke\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131nda piyasalarda volatilitenin fazlas\u0131yla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ise FED\u2019in varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131nda s\u00f6zel y\u00f6nlendirmeye ve ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131na daha fazla \u00f6nem verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin varl\u0131k program\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekerken, s\u00fcrece y\u00f6nelik belirsizli\u011fin devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kaynak: INVESTAZ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ya\u015fanan pandemi d\u00f6nemi ile birlikte ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin geni\u015flemeci maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya almas\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi kapsam\u0131nda varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda dolar likiditesinde art\u0131\u015flara neden olurken, dolar\u0131n de\u011feri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor. Fed ya\u015fanan salg\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fclke ekonomisi \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz tahribat\u0131n etkisini en aza indirmek i\u00e7in faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4349,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3772"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3772\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3802,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3772\/revisions\/3802"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}