DOLARIN 2020\u2019ye giri\u015fi:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n2020 <\/strong>y\u0131l\u0131na 5,90 seviyelerinde ba\u015flayan Dolar\/TL ilerleyen zamanlarda 6 lira band\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7erek 7 TL seviyesine kadar geldi. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan covid-19\u2019un h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fcnyan\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerine de yay\u0131lmas\u0131yla beraber Mart ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ilk vaka resmi olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00c7in ve Avrupa\u2019dan sonra T\u00fcrkiye de salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadele \u00f6nlemlerine ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu. Her \u00fclkede oldu\u011fu gibi salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede; salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131 ve ekonomide olu\u015fan bozulma dengesini kollamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Dolar\/TL 6 lira seviyesinden Mart ay\u0131 sonunda 6.60 seviyelerine kadar ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCovid-19 <\/strong>salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n etkilerini azaltmak amac\u0131yla Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nlem al\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130\u015fini kaybeden vatanda\u015flara 1000 er TL yard\u0131mlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131, esnaf destek paketi ve daha bir\u00e7ok proje hayata ge\u00e7irilerek toplamda 8 milyar 390 milyon lira finansman tahsisi yap\u0131ld\u0131. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler toplamda 200 milyar T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\nMerkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n Enflasyon ve Dolar Anketi<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nMerkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon ve dolar anketine g\u00f6re cari y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE) beklentisi 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131 anket d\u00f6neminde, T\u00dcFE’nin ortalama olarak %17,8 olas\u0131l\u0131kla %8,00 – 8,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, %30,3 olas\u0131l\u0131kla %9,00 – 9,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, %25,7 olas\u0131l\u0131kla ise %10,00 – 10,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Faiz beklentisi B\u0130ST Repo ve Ters-Repo Pazar\u0131\u2019nda olu\u015fan cari ay sonu gecelik faiz oran\u0131 beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde %7,98 iken, anket d\u00f6neminde %9,79 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. TCMB A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Ortalama Fonlama Maliyeti cari ay sonu beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde %7,74 iken bu anket d\u00f6neminde %9,43 olmu\u015ftur. TCMB bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 cari ay sonu beklentisi ise ayn\u0131 anket d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131ras\u0131yla %8,25 ve %8,43 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faizlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa koridor i\u00e7erisinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket izliyoruz. \u015eu s\u0131ralar 7,44 seviyesine kadar yakla\u015fan Dolar\/TL i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck duvar faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Merkez ise faiz artt\u0131rmaktan yana de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FED\u2019in Bilan\u00e7osu 7 Trilyon Dolar Oldu<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nPandemi d\u00f6neminde en \u00e7ok g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde olan kurumlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Amerika Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED geliyordu. FED pandemi s\u00fcrecinin en hafif ekonomik zararla atlat\u0131lmas\u0131 ad\u0131na 4 Trilyon dolar olan bilan\u00e7osunu 7 Trilyon Dolara art\u0131rarak tarihi zirveye \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnya \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesi ise b\u00fct\u00fcn kurlar aras\u0131nda \u00f6nce sert hareketlere, ard\u0131ndan dengelenme \u00f6ncesi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131mlarla dolu hareketlili\u011fe sebep oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TCMB Para Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu Toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00d6nemli<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l toplamda 24 adet Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131 yapacak. \u015eu ana kadar toplamda 16 tane toplant\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131. En son toplant\u0131 27 A\u011fustos tarihinde yap\u0131ld\u0131 toplant\u0131 sonucunda politika faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n sabit tutulmas\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. %8,25 olan faiz oran\u0131nda herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmad\u0131, ancak faiz koridorunun \u00fcst bantlar\u0131ndan i\u015flemler yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
2020 Y\u0131l\u0131 Sonu <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nCovid-19 pandemisi i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131 haberlerini duydu\u011fumuz bu g\u00fcnlerde olas\u0131 bir tedavinin bulunmas\u0131 halinde ekonomilerin pandemi \u00f6ncesi duruma ne kadar h\u0131zla d\u00f6n\u00fclece\u011fi soru i\u015fareti. Salg\u0131ndan en negatif etkilenen \u00fclkeler geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler oldu, zira kapsaml\u0131 bir tedavi bulunmas\u0131 durumunda dahi salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadele ve salg\u0131ndan kurtulma s\u00fcrecinin bu \u00fclkelerde daha me\u015fakkatli olmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Y\u0131l sonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken; ABD se\u00e7imleri, ara ara g\u00fcndeme oturan ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de petrol arama s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ile Yunanistan anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 gibi konular Dolar\/TL\u2019yi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131layacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Karadeniz\u2019de do\u011falgaz bulmas\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6nemli olmas\u0131 ve sondaj faaliyetlerine devam edilerek yeni m\u00fcjdelerin gelmeye devam etmesi durumunda ise Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki faiz bask\u0131s\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin toparlanma s\u00fcreci ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Dolar\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nOlumlu\/olumsuz beklentileri ve haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak teknik tarafta 7,42-7,45 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 Dolar\/TL i\u00e7in kritik e\u015fik. \u015eu ana kadar 7,45\u2019e dokunan kurda kritik e\u015fik ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fckse de y\u00fckseli\u015fin hen\u00fcz kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek zor. 2017 dibi olan 3,39\u2019dan 2018 zirvesi 7,20\u2019ye olan hareketin 0.50 fibonacci noktas\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda 5,30\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u00fckseli\u015fte ise Dolar\/TL 0.786 noktas\u0131 6,82\u2019ydi ve Dolar\/TL\u2019de uzun s\u00fcre kritik e\u015fik g\u00f6revini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 6,82-6,86 aras\u0131nda 1 ay boyunca sabit kalan Dolar\u2019da son e\u015fik de ge\u00e7ildi, 7,45\u2019e 1 ay i\u00e7erisinde gelindi. E\u011fer o d\u00fczeltmenin devam\u0131 gelseydi 0.50 Fibo noktas\u0131 6,30 olacakt\u0131, olmad\u0131. 7,20\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131 tekrar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz takdirde ise 6.30 hedefi tekrar g\u00fcndemde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eski zirve 7,20\u2019nin ge\u00e7ilmesiyle birlikte yukar\u0131 harekette yeni zirve hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketi de yava\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ilk kuvvetli diren\u00e7 olan 7,45\u2019den sonra ikinci kuvvetli diren\u00e7 7,85 olarak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Devam\u0131nda ise psikolojik e\u015fik 8,00 ve devam\u0131nda 8,25 seviyesi takip edilecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Dolar\/TL kuru 7,4554\u2019t\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
2020 dolar tahmini ve 2020 tl ka\u00e7 dolar gibi sorular\u0131n cevaplar\u0131n\u0131 bulabilirsiniz. 2020 Dolar\u0131n T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ne durumda olaca\u011f\u0131 her y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi bu y\u0131l da \u00fclkemizin g\u00fcndemini en \u00e7ok me\u015fgul eden sorulardan biri. Herkes yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, gelecek planlar\u0131n\u0131 ve ticari fikirlerini Dolar\u2019\u0131n ne durumda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmeden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmekten \u00e7ekiniyor. Bu Sebeple bir\u00e7ok insan 2020\u2019de Dolar\u0131n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3661,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,3],"tags":[245,243,244],"class_list":["post-3502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler","category-analiz-ve-yorumlar","tag-2020-dolar-kuru-tahmini","tag-2020-dolar-tahmini","tag-2020-tl-kac-dolar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3502"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3502\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3796,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3502\/revisions\/3796"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3661"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}