{"id":3145,"date":"2019-01-02T12:54:53","date_gmt":"2019-01-02T12:54:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=3145"},"modified":"2020-09-03T17:57:03","modified_gmt":"2020-09-03T17:57:03","slug":"2019-dolar-tahminlerini-inceleyin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/2019-dolar-tahminlerini-inceleyin\/","title":{"rendered":"2019 Dolar Tahminlerini \u0130nceleyin"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-investaz-blog\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"5Igpbi317c\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/2020-yatirim-tavsiyeleri\/\">2020 YATIRIM TAVS\u0130YELER\u0130<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;2020 YATIRIM TAVS\u0130YELER\u0130&#8221; &#8212; InvestAZ Blog\" src=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/2020-yatirim-tavsiyeleri\/embed\/#?secret=EklrKJZe8U#?secret=5Igpbi317c\" data-secret=\"5Igpbi317c\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/2020-dolar-tahmini\/\">dolar 2020 de ne olur<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yurt i\u00e7i geli\u015fmeler ve k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan beklentilerden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 ge\u00e7en bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda herkesin merak etti\u011fi TL\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011ferinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. Yani DolarTL y\u00fckselecek mi d\u00fc\u015fecek mi? Belki de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimi y\u0131la g\u00f6re bu konu hakk\u0131nda yaz\u0131lanlar, merak edilenler ve olas\u0131l\u0131k tahminlerinin daha fazla olaca\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131la girdik. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca da piyasalar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kurumlara daha fazla i\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ak\u0131ldaki bu sorular\u0131 cevaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Y\u0131l\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerinde toparlanma \u00e7abas\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6ncelikle 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken hangi geli\u015fmelerin oldu\u011funa bakal\u0131m. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ait gelen verilerdeki toparlanma e\u011filimi, ABD ve T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flayan ili\u015fkilerin etkisi ile beraber DolarTL\u2019nin 5,30 seviyelerinde dengelenerek y\u0131l\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ancak bunlar\u0131n DolarTL\u2019nin daha da fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in yeterli oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek zor olacak. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2019 Y\u0131l\u0131nda Takibimizde Olanlar<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/finance_mobile.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3035\" width=\"232\" height=\"142\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/finance_mobile.jpg 480w, https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/finance_mobile-300x184.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 232px) 100vw, 232px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu sene \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki ikili ili\u015fkilerin daha \u00e7ok \u00f6n planda oldu\u011funu ve bazen ekonomik verilerin bile \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir y\u0131l olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD &#8211; \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecinin nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131, Suriye ile ilgili geli\u015fmelerin ABD &#8211; T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin de\u011fi\u015fimden nas\u0131l bir rol oynayaca\u011f\u0131 gibi politik belirsizlikler bulunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca &nbsp;T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Mart ay\u0131nda yerel se\u00e7imler var. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Rol\u00fc<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"348\" src=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/merkez-bankasi-toplantilarini-takip-ediyor-musunuz.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1102\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/merkez-bankasi-toplantilarini-takip-ediyor-musunuz.jpg 810w, https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/merkez-bankasi-toplantilarini-takip-ediyor-musunuz-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/merkez-bankasi-toplantilarini-takip-ediyor-musunuz-768x330.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/merkez-bankasi-toplantilarini-takip-ediyor-musunuz-700x300.jpg 700w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda DolarTL\u2019nin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in TCMB faizleri art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131larda faiz indirimine gidecek mi faizler d\u00fc\u015ferse ekonomiye etkisi ne olur bunlar\u0131 takip edece\u011fiz. Ayr\u0131ca ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED\u2019in faizleri art\u0131rmas\u0131 ile geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden \u00e7\u0131kan dolar \u00fclke paralar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesine sebep olmu\u015ftu. Bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 beklentilerden fazla yapmas\u0131 DolarTL\u2019nin yukar\u0131 gitmesine sebep olabilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Yeni Bir Analiz Trump Endeksi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/02-donald-trump.w700.h700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3156\" width=\"230\" height=\"230\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/02-donald-trump.w700.h700.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/02-donald-trump.w700.h700-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/02-donald-trump.w700.h700-300x300.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 230px) 100vw, 230px\" \/><figcaption>Donald Trump<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131nda 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ile piyasalar \u00fczerinde yo\u011fun bir etkisi olmu\u015ftu. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar baz\u0131 g\u00fcnler finans piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde o kadar \u00e7ok etki g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ki art\u0131k piyasalarda klasik analiz methodlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Trump Endeksi de yerini almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda da benzer a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n devam edecek olmas\u0131 zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan piyasalar\u0131n daha da sert etkilenmesine sebep olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>DolarTL\u2019de Dengelenme S\u00fcreci<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde 5,30 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren DolarTL paritesi i\u00e7in 5,31 &#8211; 5,35 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 genel dengelenme noktas\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. Ancak yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z geli\u015fmelerin bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan olumsuz olabilecek her bir veri yada haber DolarTL\u2019nin 5,47 ve \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na sebep olabilir. Burada dikkat edece\u011fimiz nokta 5,55 seviyesi olacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l \u00f6nemli bir destek seviyesi olan 5,55\u2019in k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile beraber 5,78 ve 5,91 seviyelerine y\u00f6nelebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan para politikas\u0131 yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan piyasalar yeni uygulamalar ile desteklenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bunlar\u0131n olumlu etkisinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile beraber 5,15 seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>dolar 2020 de ne olur Yurt i\u00e7i geli\u015fmeler ve k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan beklentilerden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 ge\u00e7en bir y\u0131l\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda herkesin merak etti\u011fi TL\u2019nin yabanc\u0131 paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011ferinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. Yani DolarTL y\u00fckselecek mi d\u00fc\u015fecek mi? Belki de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimi y\u0131la g\u00f6re bu konu hakk\u0131nda yaz\u0131lanlar, merak edilenler ve olas\u0131l\u0131k tahminlerinin daha fazla olaca\u011f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[172,171,174,173,175],"class_list":["post-3145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz-ve-yorumlar","tag-2019-dolar","tag-2019-dolar-yorumu","tag-dolar","tag-dolar-ne-olur","tag-dolartl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3145"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3145\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3652,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3145\/revisions\/3652"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}