{"id":3054,"date":"2018-10-19T08:26:56","date_gmt":"2018-10-19T08:26:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/?p=3054"},"modified":"2023-08-16T10:41:26","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T10:41:26","slug":"2018-yil-sonu-dolar-tahmini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/2018-yil-sonu-dolar-tahmini\/","title":{"rendered":"2018 Y\u0131l Sonu Dolar Tahmini"},"content":{"rendered":"

2020 dolar kuru tahmini ve yorumlar\u0131 i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\n2018 Ba\u015f\u0131nda Dolar Ne Durumdayd\u0131<\/h2>\n

2018 y\u0131l\u0131na 3,79 seviyelerinden ba\u015flayan Dolar\/TL kuru, sene i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan erken se\u00e7im, ABD ile gerilen ili\u015fkiler, s\u00fcregelen davalar ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131 ile jeopolitik riskler \u00e7emberi i\u00e7inde A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 7,20 seviyesine t\u0131rmanarak tarihi zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ard\u0131ndan TCMB faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve al\u0131nan bir tak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler (Yeni Ekonomi Plan\u0131 ve Enflasyonla Topyek\u00fcn M\u00fccadele) ile Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren gerileme g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6zellikle uzun s\u00fcredir \u00fclke g\u00fcndemini me\u015fgul eden ve ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen davada rahip Brunson\u2019un serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131ran Dolar kuru 5,52 TL seviyelerini test etmesi ard\u0131ndan 5,60\u2019l\u0131 seviyelerde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Anketinde Enflasyon Beklentisi Y\u00fckseldi<\/h2>\n

TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan Ekim ay\u0131 Beklenti Anketinde; 12 ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f beklentisi, %17.03\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki anket raporunda T\u00dcFE beklentisi % 14.46\u2019idi. 24 ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE beklentisi ise % 12.7 seviyesine y\u00fckselirken, y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %19.61’den %24.22’ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ankette Kur ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme Beklentisi D\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc<\/h2>\n

2018 y\u0131l sonu Dolar kuru beklentisi<\/a> bir \u00f6nceki anket d\u00f6neminde 6,59 TL iken, bu anket d\u00f6neminde 5,99 TL’ye geriledi. 12 ay sonras\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru beklentisi ise 6,53 TL olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi % 3.4’ten % 3.2’ye indi. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.7’den y\u00fczde 1.9’a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in Kademeli Faiz Art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 S\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/h2>\n

Yurt i\u00e7inde bu geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131rken Amerika Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in kademeli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusundaki istikrarl\u0131 duru\u015fu ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi y\u0131l\u0131n 4. faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131, Geli\u015fen \u00dclke Para Birimler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131na neden olurken, di\u011fer yandan ABD \u2013 \u00c7in Ticaret Sava\u015flar\u0131 ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ndeki Brexit sorunlar\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin devam etmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

TCMB Para Piyasas\u0131 Kurulu Toplant\u0131s\u0131 Bekleniyor<\/h2>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta 25 Ekim Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olan TCMB PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f ve ABD Yapt\u0131r\u0131m Kararlar\u0131n\u0131n davan\u0131n sona ermesi ile kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimali piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarken \u015fimdilik bekle g\u00f6r havas\u0131 h\u00e2kim. <\/span><\/p>\n

Teknik olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Dolar kurunda Mart ay\u0131nda 3.70 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fin tepe noktas\u0131 7.20\u2019den Fibo geri \u00e7ekilme 0.382 b\u00f6lgesi 5.80 seviyesi \u00f6nemli destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Halen 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 5.56 seviyesi kritik \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Yukar\u0131da bahsedilen geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin devam\u0131nda Fibo 0.50 b\u00f6lgesi kurda 5.40 seviyesi hedefini g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u00a0Daha uzun vadede Fibo 0.618 noktas\u0131 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 5.000 seviyesini i\u015faret ediyor. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ancak Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi neredeyse kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcken Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yeni bir hamle gelmemesi yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin 4 Kas\u0131m\u2019da \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devreye girecek olmas\u0131 ve para birimimizin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Dolar kurunda \u00a0y\u00fckseli\u015flerin yeniden ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ihtimalini i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Y\u00fckseli\u015flerde ilk etapta 5.80 ve 6.00 psikolojik diren\u00e7ler ve \u00fczerinde 6.30 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilecek seviyeler olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu yaz\u0131 yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada DolarTL kuru; 5.63\u2019tir.<\/span><\/p>\n

2019 Dolar Tahminlerini \u0130nceleyin<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2018 Dolar\u0131n hareketlili\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hepimizin g\u00fcndemini \u00e7ok fazla kaplayan bir konuydu. Bir\u00e7ok insan Dolar\u2019\u0131n 2018 tahmini \u00fczerine onlarca yaz\u0131, dolar yorumlar\u0131 ve ki\u015fisel dolar tahminleri beyan etmekle ve merak etmekle me\u015fgul. Peki durum neden bu noktaya geldi, 2018 y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren neler oldu, 2018 y\u0131l sonu dolar ka\u00e7 olur sorusunun cevaplar\u0131n\u0131 sizler i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirdik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3081,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz-ve-yorumlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3054"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3054\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3794,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3054\/revisions\/3794"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaz.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}